| Stay in the loop: |
| Subscribe to Birinyi's free mailing list |
Search Ticker Sense
Search Investment Blog Network
As reported this morning, the unemployment rate in the US rose above 10% for the first time since 1982. As shown below, this is by far the fastest rise since continuous data begin in 1948. It is interesting to note that from 9/30/1982, when the rate first rose above 10%, to 7/29/1983, when unemployment first fell below 10%, the S&P 500 gained 34.99%.
From 1962 through the third quarter of 2009 the S&P 500
had an average annual return of 8.71%; the weighted average
Investing in the biggest, best, and fanciest funds did not pay off.
(The green line represents mutual fund performance, the blue line represents total sales - inflows minus outflows.)
Bloggers are mostly neutral to start a new month.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Crossing Wall Street Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) In the Money Knight Trader (+) Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (N) StockAdvisors.com Wall Street Folly
The last few days have everyone wondering whether the rally can continue. Is the market's move supported by the fundamentals, and can the economy recover fast enough to drive further earnings growth? Looking strictly at reported earnings so far this quarter, S&P 500 companies continue to report significantly better than expected results. In the previous quarter the average difference between EPS estimates and reported EPS was $0.08, this quarter it is $0.09; furthermore, the ratio of companies that beat earnings to those that missed is 6.25 (150 beats vs 24 misses). This earnings season has been met with skepticism and scrutiny, but the numbers so far have been better than any period during the '02 - '07 bull market.
There are more bears than bulls in this week's poll.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (N) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Learning Curve (-) Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Navivest (N) Peridot Capitalist (-) Quant Investor (N) Smart Money Tracker (-) Traders-Talk (+) Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
Laszlo Birinyi will appear as a guest on tomorrow's airing of Squawk on the Street at 10:00.
There are more bears than bulls in this week's poll.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (N) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money Maoxian Millionaire Now (-) Navivest (N) Peridot Capitalist (-) Smart Money Tracker (-) StockAdvisors.com Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
Monday morning we recommended King Pharmaceuticals (KG) as our stock of the week. The recommendation was distributed at 8:30 and we calculate performance based on the opening that day. Subscribers to Birinyi's Mini-Institutional service have gained 7.7% through Wednesday's close, and over 110% this year investing in the Stock of the Week alone!
Below we highlight the simple rolling ten year return on the S&P 500 since 1955 (note that this is simple return, not total return). The shaded areas on the chart are periods of negative return. The great bull market lasting from 1982 to 2000 brought this calculation has high as 400% before turning negative in October of 2008. With this market up 59% from the bottom, many investors may feel as though they missed these gains and need to wait for another entry point. Depending on your time horizon, that is not necessarily the case.
If we look at the last period when ten year returns were negative, we find that the ten year return going forward is an average of 163%. In other words, on a days when the ten year return on the S&P was negative (this is roughly 640 trading days) the average return going forward ten years was 163% and the minimum return was 78%. Anyone with a time horizon of at least ten years should stay in stocks.
There are more bulls than bears in this week's poll.
Blogger Sentiment Poll Participants: 24/7 Wall St (-) Carl Futia (+) Dash of Insight (+) Elliot Wave Lives On (-) Fallond Stock Picks (-) In the Money The Knight Trader (+) Maoxian Millionaire Now (N) Peridot Capitalist (-) Smart Money Tracker (+) StockAdvisors.com Wall Street Folly Wishing Wealth (+)
A lot has been said about the biggest percent gainers since the March 9th low, but what about the biggest money makers. Let's face it, when banks were at risk of government abduction and the market was blind sided by the January and February declines, it was tough to pull the trigger on big purchases of BAC at $3 or Citi below $1.
Below we look at the market from a different view, if you had bought 1,000 shares of any S&P 500 stock what would have been the big winner? It turns out that a purchase of 1,000 shares of Google at the 3/9 close has returned $226,650 through the 10/7 close; far and away the biggest winner. There are only seven S&P stocks that are down since the market bottomed.
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web's most prominent investment bloggers, asking "What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?" Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers -- a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2009 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment PollTicker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.
